CupIndex
📊

World Cup 2026 Winning Probability Tracker

Real-time tournament probability analysis with AI-powered predictions

🤖 AI Model Overview

Our AI model analyzes 10,000+ simulations daily, considering current form, squad strength, and historical data to predict World Cup 2026 outcomes with 78% accuracy in knockout stages.

Last Updated: 2/25/2026, 12:38:43 PM • Confidence Level: 78%

Tournament Winner Probabilities

#1
🇦🇷

Argentina

18.5%
+2.1%
Confidence Level
85%
Risk Level
Medium
Form Trend
↗️
Squad Strength
92/100

Key Factors:

Messi's final World CupStrong midfield depthProven tournament experience
#2
🇧🇷

Brazil

16.2%
-0.8%
Confidence Level
82%
Risk Level
Medium-High
Form Trend
↘️
Squad Strength
94/100

Key Factors:

Talented young squadTactical inconsistency concernsDepth in attack
#3
🇫🇷

France

15.8%
+1.3%
Confidence Level
88%
Risk Level
Low
Form Trend
↗️
Squad Strength
91/100

Key Factors:

Defending championsMbappé in primeSolid defensive structure
#4
🇪🇸

Spain

12.4%
+3.2%
Confidence Level
79%
Risk Level
Medium
Form Trend
↗️↗️
Squad Strength
88/100

Key Factors:

Young talented generationPossession-based styleLack of proven striker
#5
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

11.1%
-1.2%
Confidence Level
75%
Risk Level
Medium-High
Form Trend
→
Squad Strength
87/100

Key Factors:

Strong individual talentMental fragility in finalsDepth across positions
#6
🇩🇪

Germany

9.1%
+2.4%
Confidence Level
73%
Risk Level
Medium
Form Trend
↗️
Squad Strength
86/100

Key Factors:

Rebuilding phaseYoung promising playersTournament pedigree

Risk Factor Analysis

Squad Age Profile

High

Teams with aging star players face higher injury and performance decline risks

Tournament Experience

Medium

Teams with limited World Cup experience struggle in high-pressure knockout matches

Squad Depth

Medium-High

Injuries to key players can drastically alter tournament outcomes for teams with limited depth

🧠 Methodology

Data Sources:

  • • FIFA rankings and Elo ratings
  • • Recent match performance data
  • • Player market values & availability
  • • Historical World Cup statistics

Model Features:

  • • 10,000+ tournament simulations daily
  • • Monte Carlo probability calculations
  • • Dynamic form adjustment algorithms
  • • Injury impact weighted predictions

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